US Job Growth Strong, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4 Percent

The unemployment rate in Windsor dipped slightly last month, but so too did the labour participation rate.

Employers in the United States are thought to have kept up their brisk pace of hiring in June, reflecting the durability of the second-longest US economic expansion on record even in the face of a trade war with China. The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points in June for college grads. But even that reflected a healthy economy: It rose because more than 600,000 Americans joined the work force.

"It's a good thing".

Rather than being an omen of bad things to come, the rise suggests a positive outlook for the U.S. economy as it coincides with more than 600,000 people entering the labor force.

Several measures showed that the labor market still has slack to absorb. Neither the BLS report nor any of the establishment press outlets have sought to provide any explanation for this trend, which runs contrary to the commonly-accepted capitalist economic principle that a tighter labor market will result in higher wages as employers compete against one another for workers.

"Together with signs that GDP growth rebounded markedly in the second quarter, that will keep the Fed on course to raise interest rates twice more by year-end".

However, the annual increase in average hourly earnings was unchanged at 2.7%. An acceleration of this rate would show that employers are indeed paying up for the skilled workers who they say are in decreasing supply.

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The combination of strong job growth with stagnant wages has been an ongoing pattern in jobs reports since the 2007-2008 financial crisis and subsequent "Great Recession". Paychecks are growing at a slower rate than in previous expansions.

Hanging over the labor market are President Trump's tariffs on goods from some of America's largest trading partners, along with retaliatory charges. The department also boosted its estimate for April job growth up to 175,000 - up from an earlier assessment of 159,000.

Among industrial sub-sectors, the three standouts for jobs improvement in June were: "education and health services", +54,000; "professional and business services", +50,000; and in a long-time-coming and pleasantly-welcome development, "manufacturing", +36,000.

The monthly average climb so far in 2018 has been +215,000. However, fears of a trade war with other countries, especially China, have many anxious the economy could slow down or shrink in the months ahead.

But the Federal Reserve reported that businesses are becoming anxious about the fallout. Automakers added 12,000 jobs in June.

"He pointed to minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee, which indicate that some business leaders' "'plans for capital spending had been scaled back or postponed, '" which will likely also affect hiring.

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