Trump Pulls Out Of Iran Nuke Deal & What's In It For India?

U.S. Rep. Mac Thornberry R-Clarendon.


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USA sanctions on Iran will have a six-month period during which buyers should "wind down" oil purchases, meaning any loss of supply will not be immediately felt in the market. These sanctions will be far less effective than those imposed in 2012, with their success or failure largely outside of US control.

The landmark Iran nuclear deal was reached in 2015, during the term of Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama.

Under the new sanctions, the United States will begin blocking new deals with Iran immediately, but will provide leniency toward firms with existing commercial agreements if they demonstrate that they are reducing their involvement with Iran over a 180-day "wind-down" period. Any drop in Iranian exports would only accelerate that trend. That's up from $2.49 a gallon a year ago, a gain of 19 percent.

OPEC is in no hurry to decide whether to pump more oil to make up for an expected drop in exports from Iran after the imposition of new USA sanctions, three sources familiar with the issue said, saying any loss in supply would take time.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose 1.4 million barrels, EIA said.

Initial responses have thus far been mixed among the largest crude importing countries in Asia.

"Japan and South Korea may comply with the proposed US reimposition of Iranian sanctions on the concern of losing the USA security umbrella vis-à-vis North Korea", Khoman said. As a result, Japanese President Shinzo Abe is laser-focused on remaining in Washington's good graces. In theory, some countries could receive waivers from sanctions if they reduce their oil purchases from Iran by some unspecific amount. Chinese crude imports recently hit record highs, and the country will be loath to cut imports from Iran or switch providers in the midst of a tight oil market.

Opening of US Embassy in Jerusalem Days Away
With the opening of the new US embassy in Jerusalem only days away, the embassy changed its Twitter handle to reflect the move from Tel Aviv.

Pakistan to impose reciprocal restrictions on U.S. diplomats
The US lawmakers have also advised the Trump administration not to take imposed such restrictions as it was not a smart thing. The US officials are already prohibited from risky areas in order to protect them from possible terrorist attack.

Trump set to announce Iran nuclear deal decision
He was due to meet Vice President Mike Pence and national security adviser John Bolton, although not the president himself. So we felt that it was a good agreement which worked for European security as well as the security of other countries.

Now that it's left the accord, the USA intends to reimplement sanctions on Iran following certain "90-day and 180-day wind-down periods", according to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

Zanganeh said Iran's crude production was about four million barrels per day (bpd), nearly four percent of global output. "While prices are now rising on Trump's decision to reimpose sanctions on Iran, we may see some limitations to the rally as any lost volumes can be supplied by other producing nations".

'Unlike in some past oil market rallies, companies are not making huge investments in future production.

The big question at this point is how disruptive unilateral sanctions from the US will be to Iranian oil flows. It will likely maintain its current import levels, around 500,000 bpd, along with state-backed insurance for oil shipments, unless Europe follows the U.S.in applying a new round of restrictions.

Is $100 oil on its way back? New sanctions will further consolidate Iran's oil customers into those less likely to pressure Iran for denuclearization or regime change, and will weaken the bargaining position of USA allies in further negotiations with Iran. Both the IEA and Saudi Arabia issued statements saying they will monitor the status of the oil market and step in if a shortage materializes. Riyadh lost no time in assuring the market on Tuesday that it would compensate for any fall in Iranian supply.

Analysts' estimates of the possible reduction in Iranian crude supplies as a result of any new US sanctions range from 200,000 bpd to 1 million bpd.

From the start of the year, oil prices have risen by about $10/bbl, in view of OPEC's success at restricting supply, a strong world economy and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to Nomura.

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