Leak: No deal Brexit 'would cost 9% of Scotland's GDP'

Julie Sinnamon of Enterprise Ireland with Henri Murrison of Northern Powerhouse and Heather Humphreys business minister at the launch of the Northern Powerhouse report

A leaked British government report says Northern Ireland would suffer a 12 per cent drop in GDP in the case of a "no deal" Brexit.

London would fare least badly, with its GDP down just 1% under single market membership, 2% through a free trade deal and 3.5% if there is no deal.

It suggests Northern Ireland will remain under European Union law after the transition period where it is relevant to the north-south economy, and the requirements of the Good Friday Agreement.

It is expected to provoke quarrels both within the ruling Conservative Party and between the government and the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, whose ten MPs have given their support to Prime Minister Theresa May, providing her a majority in the House of Commons. The Northern Ireland secretary also faced questions about progress towards ensuring that the Border remained frictionless.

SNP MP Peter Grant said: "The leaked United Kingdom government's internal Brexit analysis makes for utterly grim reading, and Theresa May must now end the shameful secrecy surrounding the United Kingdom government's Brexit plans and publish the papers in full - which we now know will have catastrophic consequences for Scotland and the UK's economy".

Yesterday's discussion focused on future customs arrangements and their impact on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

She continued, "As I have said right from the very beginning we will here noises off, we will hear all sorts of things being said about positions that are being taken".

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"Does she believe any analysis she has seen?"

In December previous year, the UK made a "gentleman's agreement" with the EU to allow talks to move onto trade, promising that "in the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union".

Trade Secretary Liam Fox said the leaked assessment underestimated the potential increase in trade with the rest of the world after Brexit.

A Government spokesman said: "This document does not represent Government policy and does not consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations".

Perhaps even more stark are the effect a no-deal exit would have on retail prices - with the secret analysis suggesting overall high street prices to rise by 21%, and, crucially, food and drink costs to rise by 17%.

Another Labour MP and Remain supporter, Chuka Umunna, said: "The Government's own analysis of the economic hit to GDP from a "no deal" Brexit would be 16% to North East England and 12% to Northern Ireland - and still Tory Brextremists agitate for this!"

The analysis suggests that London, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union, will get off most lightly from Brexit, with growth reduced by just 3.5 per cent, even with no deal.

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